Flammifer
Well-Known Member
"He (Sauron) believed that the One had perished; that the Elves had destroyed it, as should have been done. But he knows now that it has not perished, that it has been found. So he is seeking it, seeking it, and all his thought is bent on it. It is his great hope and our great fear.”
Thus said Gandalf to Frodo in The Shadow of the Past.
First, this implies that Sauron (like everyone else until the Meeting of the Captains of the West, in the Return of the King) has no conception that the destruction of the Ring would functionally destroy him. (At least that is Gandalf’s belief.)
(I know that it is hard for people to recover the perspective of the first-time reader, and realize that during the Council of Elrond, no one assumes that destroying the Ring will destroy Sauron and win the war. They only assume that destroying the Ring will deny it to Sauron and any other potential wielders. However, I don’t think that close reading permits any other view.)
If Gandalf is correct, and Sauron believed the Ring to have been destroyed, then one thing is clear. Sauron does not fear the destruction of the Ring. He has no belief that he will be functionally destroyed if the Ring is destroyed. (This passage by Gandalf also implies that Gandalf has no belief that Sauron would be destroyed through the destruction of the Ring, as he might have added a modifier to indicate that the assumption he attributed to Sauron might be flawed.)
So, what happens to Sauron’s mind-set and strategy when he discovers, from Gollum, sometime between 3009 and 3016 (I guess later in that period) that the One Ring still exists?
Is “all his thought bent on it”? Is Gandalf correct in thinking, “it is his great hope and our great fear”?
I suggest that Gandalf is not exactly correct in his assessment of Sauron’s emotions. I think Sauron’s first emotion is not hope, but fear. Sauron fears that someone powerful might gain control of the Ring, and be able to challenge him and defeat him in the struggle for control of Middle-earth. Although Sauron's knowledge of the existence and finding of the Ring changes Sauron's strategy fundamentally, I do not think that "all his thought is bent on it", in the obsessive way which Gandalf's comment might imply. Sauron is rather slow to act on this startling news.
Sauron’s entire strategy, since his return after defeat in the War of the Last Alliance, has been very long term. Very gradual.
Sauron learned, from his more bold and aggressive strategies during the Second Age, that even with the Ring, he was not powerful enough to overcome the Numenoreans directly through combat. That even with the Ring, he was not powerful enough to overcome the forces of the Last Alliance in war. His creation of the Ring was flawed in that it did not achieve all of his intentions. The Three were not bound. Nor were the Seven.
Sauron has been very cautious in his strategy in the Third Age. Concealing his presence in Dol Guldur. Being willing to take 565 years, between the first attack by the Witch King on Arnor and the final destruction of the Numenorean kingdoms in Eriador. Why so circumspect? What does Sauron fear?
Well, the first-time reader may only have a very dim perception of this, but Sauron must fear the Valar. They defeated his lord, “The Great Enemy, of whom Sauron of Mordor was but a servant,” as Aragorn tells on Weathertop. Best not to get them involved again. Then, more clearly to the first-time reader, Sauron must fear the Elves, and the remaining Numenoreans. They defeated him once, even when he had the Ring. They could well defeat him again. However, both are in decline. Time is on Sauron’s side. He is not in a hurry. His strategy is slow and cautious. Let the Elves decline. Let the Numenorean exiles decline. Whittle away at their strength. Build up the defences and strengths of Mordor gradually. No rush. World domination will come in time.
Now though, Sauron has new intelligence. The One Ring was not destroyed! It is not even lost! It has been found!
Suddenly, Sauron has a new fear. What if someone powerful gains mastery of the Ring?
Sauron does not fear the destruction of the Ring. He has no conception that this would damage him.
Sauron does want the ring, as it would make him more powerful, and accelerate his domination. However, he is already the most powerful being in Middle-earth, with few doubts that he will dominate eventually. So, although he lusts for the Ring. I think he fears more that another will wield it against him, than he hopes that he will reclaim it and wield it again himself.
Still, it takes Sauron time to break out of his slow and cautious strategy and adopt a more urgent approach. We are not sure exactly when Sauron captures Gollum. Nor when he is convinced that the One exists and has been found. But, we know that Gollum is released from Mordor some time in 3017. He is found in the Dead Marshes by Aragorn. He is dragged to the Wood-elves. He is interrogated by Gandalf. He is held in captivity. He is rescued. It is not until after June 20, 3018, that the Nine cross the Anduin, and begin seeking the Shire.
Why not start the hunt immediately? Sauron is not ready. He wants to gather his armies and allies from the South and East. He wants to strike a blow at Gondor, smash the bridge at Osgiliath and prevent a pre-emptive strike against Mordor or his allies from Gondor. He wants to increase his influence over Saruman, so that co-ordinated attacks on Gondor and Rohan might be achieved.
Sauron does not panic. He does not spring into precipitant action when he discovers that the Ring exists and is found. He plans. But, curiously, his very first action in his quest to recover the Ring, seems to be the release of Gollum from Mordor. His second action seems to be to send an emissary to Erebor. Neither is a very forceful, predictable, or controllable course of action. Why such restrained actions in response to such important and alarming information?
Sauron must be hoping that Gollum may be able to find and obtain the Ring. Sauron, at this point, has no knowledge as to whether any powerful and potentially opposing people have any idea that the Ring exists and has been found. Gollum on the hunt is less likely to cause alarm and suspicion than the Nazgul in pursuit. 'If the Ring is still secret, let’s keep it so', is probably Sauron’s thought. Besides, he needs the Nazgul back at home for a while to accelerate his preparations for offensive or defensive war should that be needed earlier than he had planned.
“Let’s start small, cautious and secret, by seeing if Gollum can get the Ring”, might have been Sauron’s thought. He is not worried that Gollum can wield the Ring against him. He is impressed by Gollum’s cunning in tracking, and stealth in remaining undetected on the fences of Mordor for more than 50 years. He thinks that Gollum might be able to find and acquire the Ring. He thinks that Gollum might be able to evade and hide from any powerful ring-rivals who might appear. He does not think that Gollum will be able to evade his own spies, or, even if he does, that Gollum will be able to resist returning again to Mordor to deliver the Ring.
However, this secret Gollum-plan is disrupted when Gollum is captured by Aragorn and dragged north. Sauron’s alarm multiplies when his spies inform him that Gandalf has been interrogating Gollum. Even if Sauron did not identify Aragorn as a potential ring-rival at this time, he quite likely did identify Gandalf as such. Now his urgency and panic grows. Now he must act more forcefully, decisively, and swiftly!
Sauron accelerates his plans again. He will launch the Nazgul on the hunt for the Ring much sooner than he had thought. Waiting only for the attack on Osgiliath. Meanwhile, Gollum will be rescued, to keep that plan in play. But Gollum is now much more of a back-up or fall-back plan, as the main thrust of the hunt for the Ring is entrusted to the Nazgul.
Thus said Gandalf to Frodo in The Shadow of the Past.
First, this implies that Sauron (like everyone else until the Meeting of the Captains of the West, in the Return of the King) has no conception that the destruction of the Ring would functionally destroy him. (At least that is Gandalf’s belief.)
(I know that it is hard for people to recover the perspective of the first-time reader, and realize that during the Council of Elrond, no one assumes that destroying the Ring will destroy Sauron and win the war. They only assume that destroying the Ring will deny it to Sauron and any other potential wielders. However, I don’t think that close reading permits any other view.)
If Gandalf is correct, and Sauron believed the Ring to have been destroyed, then one thing is clear. Sauron does not fear the destruction of the Ring. He has no belief that he will be functionally destroyed if the Ring is destroyed. (This passage by Gandalf also implies that Gandalf has no belief that Sauron would be destroyed through the destruction of the Ring, as he might have added a modifier to indicate that the assumption he attributed to Sauron might be flawed.)
So, what happens to Sauron’s mind-set and strategy when he discovers, from Gollum, sometime between 3009 and 3016 (I guess later in that period) that the One Ring still exists?
Is “all his thought bent on it”? Is Gandalf correct in thinking, “it is his great hope and our great fear”?
I suggest that Gandalf is not exactly correct in his assessment of Sauron’s emotions. I think Sauron’s first emotion is not hope, but fear. Sauron fears that someone powerful might gain control of the Ring, and be able to challenge him and defeat him in the struggle for control of Middle-earth. Although Sauron's knowledge of the existence and finding of the Ring changes Sauron's strategy fundamentally, I do not think that "all his thought is bent on it", in the obsessive way which Gandalf's comment might imply. Sauron is rather slow to act on this startling news.
Sauron’s entire strategy, since his return after defeat in the War of the Last Alliance, has been very long term. Very gradual.
Sauron learned, from his more bold and aggressive strategies during the Second Age, that even with the Ring, he was not powerful enough to overcome the Numenoreans directly through combat. That even with the Ring, he was not powerful enough to overcome the forces of the Last Alliance in war. His creation of the Ring was flawed in that it did not achieve all of his intentions. The Three were not bound. Nor were the Seven.
Sauron has been very cautious in his strategy in the Third Age. Concealing his presence in Dol Guldur. Being willing to take 565 years, between the first attack by the Witch King on Arnor and the final destruction of the Numenorean kingdoms in Eriador. Why so circumspect? What does Sauron fear?
Well, the first-time reader may only have a very dim perception of this, but Sauron must fear the Valar. They defeated his lord, “The Great Enemy, of whom Sauron of Mordor was but a servant,” as Aragorn tells on Weathertop. Best not to get them involved again. Then, more clearly to the first-time reader, Sauron must fear the Elves, and the remaining Numenoreans. They defeated him once, even when he had the Ring. They could well defeat him again. However, both are in decline. Time is on Sauron’s side. He is not in a hurry. His strategy is slow and cautious. Let the Elves decline. Let the Numenorean exiles decline. Whittle away at their strength. Build up the defences and strengths of Mordor gradually. No rush. World domination will come in time.
Now though, Sauron has new intelligence. The One Ring was not destroyed! It is not even lost! It has been found!
Suddenly, Sauron has a new fear. What if someone powerful gains mastery of the Ring?
Sauron does not fear the destruction of the Ring. He has no conception that this would damage him.
Sauron does want the ring, as it would make him more powerful, and accelerate his domination. However, he is already the most powerful being in Middle-earth, with few doubts that he will dominate eventually. So, although he lusts for the Ring. I think he fears more that another will wield it against him, than he hopes that he will reclaim it and wield it again himself.
Still, it takes Sauron time to break out of his slow and cautious strategy and adopt a more urgent approach. We are not sure exactly when Sauron captures Gollum. Nor when he is convinced that the One exists and has been found. But, we know that Gollum is released from Mordor some time in 3017. He is found in the Dead Marshes by Aragorn. He is dragged to the Wood-elves. He is interrogated by Gandalf. He is held in captivity. He is rescued. It is not until after June 20, 3018, that the Nine cross the Anduin, and begin seeking the Shire.
Why not start the hunt immediately? Sauron is not ready. He wants to gather his armies and allies from the South and East. He wants to strike a blow at Gondor, smash the bridge at Osgiliath and prevent a pre-emptive strike against Mordor or his allies from Gondor. He wants to increase his influence over Saruman, so that co-ordinated attacks on Gondor and Rohan might be achieved.
Sauron does not panic. He does not spring into precipitant action when he discovers that the Ring exists and is found. He plans. But, curiously, his very first action in his quest to recover the Ring, seems to be the release of Gollum from Mordor. His second action seems to be to send an emissary to Erebor. Neither is a very forceful, predictable, or controllable course of action. Why such restrained actions in response to such important and alarming information?
Sauron must be hoping that Gollum may be able to find and obtain the Ring. Sauron, at this point, has no knowledge as to whether any powerful and potentially opposing people have any idea that the Ring exists and has been found. Gollum on the hunt is less likely to cause alarm and suspicion than the Nazgul in pursuit. 'If the Ring is still secret, let’s keep it so', is probably Sauron’s thought. Besides, he needs the Nazgul back at home for a while to accelerate his preparations for offensive or defensive war should that be needed earlier than he had planned.
“Let’s start small, cautious and secret, by seeing if Gollum can get the Ring”, might have been Sauron’s thought. He is not worried that Gollum can wield the Ring against him. He is impressed by Gollum’s cunning in tracking, and stealth in remaining undetected on the fences of Mordor for more than 50 years. He thinks that Gollum might be able to find and acquire the Ring. He thinks that Gollum might be able to evade and hide from any powerful ring-rivals who might appear. He does not think that Gollum will be able to evade his own spies, or, even if he does, that Gollum will be able to resist returning again to Mordor to deliver the Ring.
However, this secret Gollum-plan is disrupted when Gollum is captured by Aragorn and dragged north. Sauron’s alarm multiplies when his spies inform him that Gandalf has been interrogating Gollum. Even if Sauron did not identify Aragorn as a potential ring-rival at this time, he quite likely did identify Gandalf as such. Now his urgency and panic grows. Now he must act more forcefully, decisively, and swiftly!
Sauron accelerates his plans again. He will launch the Nazgul on the hunt for the Ring much sooner than he had thought. Waiting only for the attack on Osgiliath. Meanwhile, Gollum will be rescued, to keep that plan in play. But Gollum is now much more of a back-up or fall-back plan, as the main thrust of the hunt for the Ring is entrusted to the Nazgul.
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