Data Update

I tried for a less scary estimation, by looking at progress so far versus words remaining.

We have covered approximately 104000 words so far in 140 sessions, although it is generally regarded that we travelled at breakneck speed through the first 9848 (Chapter 1), and barely slowed for the next few chapters.

Nonetheless, assuming (perilously) that this average pace was to be maintained for the remainder of the work, and the trend to not continue, I arrived at the following rounded estimates:
Remainder of Book 2: 100 sessions
Books 3 & 4: 208 sessions
Books 5&6: 182 sessions

The prologue and a recap of Chapter 1 at a 'responsible' rate is probably another 20 sessions, plus another ~10 sessions for summing up and broad conclusions brings us to 520 sessions, or 10 more years at 1 session per week with no interruptions.

More likely, another 12 years as a lower bound.

If the current trend continues then we will never finish, but I'm thinking a logistic function more likely as we can't seriously get to the point where we average more than one session per paragraph.
 
First it was sessions per chapter.
Then it was pages per session.
Then it was paragraphs per session.
And now we're counting words per session.
We will truly never reach the end. How glorious!
 
I wonder if there’s a correlation between the slowdown of progression and the increase of participants in the live sessions. Not to pooh-pooh the contributions of new members; they bring unique insights and make the discussions more fun. Buuuut... more insight and discussion takes more time. Ah well, it’s all good. We’ll get there eventually. :D
 
A positive data point this week, and maybe it's because we've been wading through some particularly dense material until this point:
CoE trend 2020-05-13.png
Prediction of sessions for the chapter has now dropped to 54.
Book2 progress 2020-05-13.pngELotR progress 2020-05-13.png

If we don't spend too much time discussing all of the possible interpretations of trove, beyond the most obvious, we might even make it to the end of Saruman's 'wisdom' as detailed in Gandalf's speech. '"....There let it lie until the End."'. If we make it that far it will be 503 words covered and would bring the course total session prediction for the chapter down to 52.
Covering to Gandalf's '...: a strange chance, if chance it was.' Keeps us on track for 54 sessions.

For those interested, my prediction is based simply on the current session count divided by the proportion covered to date. More rigorous techniques might render a more refined result, but who's got the time for that?

Addit: Our average words per session since the start is around 735, but for the Council of Elrond has been only ~311. So, even were we to step up the pace significantly it will take some time to see a reduction of the prediction for completion of the project which still stands at around 640 sessions without covering the Foreword, Prologues, or re-covering Chapter 1, but is also climbing.
At our current average pace for this chapter we are looking at more than 1170 sessions to complete the work.
 
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CoE progress 28jul.png
Today's session kept us on track for 57 sessions for the Council of Elrond. As I named the image file for this chart I (perhaps optimistically) named it 'CoE progress 28jul.png'; let's hope people never have to ask whether that was 2020 or 2021.
 
177 words in todays session pushes the prediction out to 58 sessions for the Council of Elrond. We are 46.5% through the chapter.
 
This week with the discussion only really covering from Boromir's redirect to the end of Legolas' speech (292 words) and not Glóin's indignant outburst or Gandalf's response we are one word past the halfway point in the chapter.

As such, the prediction is unchanged at 58 sessions for the Council of Elrond.
 
Work has kept me quite busy, but having caught up on the data (if not the listening of all sessions) the current prediction is hovering around 60 or 61 sessions total.
So, with 17 or 18 sessions remaining we should complete the Council of Elrond some time in early April 2021.
CoE trend 2020-12-08.png
 
Life has been busy again. Current prediction has crept up to 62, and with a prediction of 8 sessions remaining it is likely to remain fairly stable from here on.

With a likely interruption at Easter, I now expect we'll finish around mid May 2021.

1616397110948.png
 
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1621566527414.png

As we approach the end of the Chapter it is becoming easier to predict the total number of sessions for the chapter which is currently looking like it will be 65. So, finished before Mythmoot VIII starts.

Being just over a year since last calculating it, this seems like as good a time as any to refresh the prediction for how long it will take to finish the work.

At the average we have now achieved, the rounded estimates are now:
Remainder of Book 2: 103 sessions
Books 3 & 4: 253 sessions
Books 5&6: 222 sessions
Prologue, Ch1 recap, summing up 32

This gives a total of 610 more.

At the current average of 43 sessions per year this leads us to just over 14 more years (leading me to pray for the continuing health of all involved.)
If LoTRO is still available to play at that point it will be twice as old as it currently is.

I will concede that there are passages of the text that are far less dense than the Council of Elrond, but our current average also includes the irresponsibly fast pace through the early chapters.
 
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@Anthony Lawther , nice data :)
My analysis is less granular than yours, focusing on pages and chapters rather than word count. If I use your estimate (which seems reasonable) that we will finish CoE after ~65 sessions and use our average pace over the last 3 chapters (~0.48 pages/week) then I forecast 19-20 years remaining. However, 'time-remaining' forecasts are (naturally) quite sensitive to the data included to predict the pace. I'll post some plots once the chapter is officially finished.
 
Depending on how many words we covered in today's (Edit: 65th) session, which is open to interpretation, we have approximately 300 words remaining in the Council of Elrond.

Having averaged almost exactly 250 words per session for the chapter, we are on track to finish either in the next session or the one after.
 
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Something has gone sideways with my calculations that I will need to revisit for the sake of posterity (and my sanity), but I can confidently report that we have only 60 words left to cover (92 if we revisit Sam's volunteering) and in the 66th session we covered 93 words with some time taken to discuss why Turin should (or shouldn't) be included in the list of mighty Elf-friends of old.

This gives me some confidence in predicting that we will complete the Council of Elrond in just one more session.

Edit: it seems I lost a week there somehow.
 
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