The chances for each eumelanin gamete from each genome look like this:
10 VVWWXXYYZZ = deep black 5 (100%)
9 VVWWXXYYZz = “black” 4 (50%), 5 (50%)
8 VVWWXXYyZz = dark brown with rr = chestnut 3 (25%), 4 (50%), 5 (25%)
7 VVWWXxYyZz = brown with rr = dark auburn 2 (12.5%), 3 (37.5%), 4 (37.5%), 5 (12.5%)
6 VVWwXxYyZz = brown with rr = light auburn 1 (6.25%), 2 (25%), 3 (37.5%), 4 (25%), 5 (6.25%)
5 VvWwXxYyZz = light/golden brown with rr = copper 0 (3.125%), 1 (15.625%), 2 (31.25%), 3 (31.25%), 4 (15.625%), 5 (3.125%)
4 VvWwXxYyzz = sandy/ash blond with rr = ginger 0 (6.25%), 1 (25%), 2 (37.5%), 3 (25%), 4 (6.25%)
3 VvWwXxyyzz = deep gold with rr = ginger 0 (12.5%), 1 (37.5%), 2 (37.5%), 3 (12.5%)
2 VvWwxxyyzz = golden blond with rr = ginger 0 (25%), 1 (50%), 2 (25%)
1 Vvwwxxyyzz = light blond/flaxen with rr = strawberry blond 0 (50%), 1 (50%)
0 vvwwxxyyzz = platinum blond with rr = strawberry blond 0 (100%)
In theory, I can multiply the %s, /100, of the 2 gametes for any given combo, then add up the %s of combos that produce the same result, to get the chances from any given result.
Every possible cross for Feanor + Nerdanel, with the gamete %s: (I wish I knew how to insert a table)
Fëanor 9 × Nerdanel 5: 10 (1.6%), 9 (9.4%), 8 (23.4%), 7 (31.3%), 6 (23.4%), 5 (9.4%), 4 (1.6%)
Fëanor 9 × Nerdanel 6: 10 (3.1%), 9 (15.6%), 8 (31.3%), 7 (31.3%), 6 (15.6%), 5 (3.1%) (reproduced/confirmed your result)
Fëanor 10 × Nerdanel 5: 10 (3.1%), 9 (15.6%), 8 (31.3%), 7 (31.3%), 6 (15.6%), 5 (3.1%)
Fëanor 9 × Nerdanel 7: 10 (6.3%), 9 (25%), 8 (37.5%), 7 (25%), 6 (6.3%)
Fëanor 10 × Nerdanel 6: 10 (6.3%), 9 (25%), 8 (37.5%), 7 (25%), 6 (6.3%)
Fëanor 10 × Nerdanel 7: 10 (12.5%), 9 (37.5%), 8 (37.5%), 7 (12.5%)
Nerdanel: +r, +?, 5-7 brown
Fëanor: ?r, +s, 9-10 black
Maedhros: rr, +?, 5-7 or rr, +s (diluted) 6-8 copper or auburn
Maglor: ??, ??, 5-10 dark
Celegorm: ??, ??, 5-7 brown
Caranthir: ??, +?, 6-10 dark
Curufin: ??, +?, 6-10 dark
twins: rr, +s (diluted) 7-8 copper/auburn/dark
I like the chances from 9x6 and 10x5 best. Very low chances of a 10 or 5, but still Celegorm could be 5, Maedhros 6, and Maglor-Caranthir-Curufin 7-9.
Otherwise, 9x7 or 10x6, with Maedhros and Celegorm diluted somehow via carrying silver.
9x5 makes 5 (copper or light/golden brown) more likely and 9 equally so, with 4 and 10 as very unlikely outliers.
RE: Indis x Finwe, I like giving Indis a 3. In think somewhere Fingolfin is called "his father's son, tall, dark, and proud". I wouldn't want him lighter than an 8 or 7. Irime can be a lighter brown (5-7). Also I imagine that, among Elves, 4 is a deep gold instead of the greyish ash-blond Humans get. And I'm going to assume Indis' parents and Elenwe are no darker than 4.
That still leaves Fingolfin's kids wide open because we know nothing about Anaire, except she's Noldorin. I'd prefer her and Turgon and Eol to be dark, but they aren't specified AFAIK. I'm going to cross Fingolfin (7-8) x Anaire (5-10), and then Turgon x Elenwe (0-4), and Aredhel x Eol. (This is so weird. I feel like I'm talking about breeding rabbits. Actually doing so with rabbits named after Elven princes would be... a level of fannish dedication I'm not prepared to go to.)
10 VVWWXXYYZZ = deep black 5 (100%)
9 VVWWXXYYZz = “black” 4 (50%), 5 (50%)
8 VVWWXXYyZz = dark brown with rr = chestnut 3 (25%), 4 (50%), 5 (25%)
7 VVWWXxYyZz = brown with rr = dark auburn 2 (12.5%), 3 (37.5%), 4 (37.5%), 5 (12.5%)
6 VVWwXxYyZz = brown with rr = light auburn 1 (6.25%), 2 (25%), 3 (37.5%), 4 (25%), 5 (6.25%)
5 VvWwXxYyZz = light/golden brown with rr = copper 0 (3.125%), 1 (15.625%), 2 (31.25%), 3 (31.25%), 4 (15.625%), 5 (3.125%)
4 VvWwXxYyzz = sandy/ash blond with rr = ginger 0 (6.25%), 1 (25%), 2 (37.5%), 3 (25%), 4 (6.25%)
3 VvWwXxyyzz = deep gold with rr = ginger 0 (12.5%), 1 (37.5%), 2 (37.5%), 3 (12.5%)
2 VvWwxxyyzz = golden blond with rr = ginger 0 (25%), 1 (50%), 2 (25%)
1 Vvwwxxyyzz = light blond/flaxen with rr = strawberry blond 0 (50%), 1 (50%)
0 vvwwxxyyzz = platinum blond with rr = strawberry blond 0 (100%)
In theory, I can multiply the %s, /100, of the 2 gametes for any given combo, then add up the %s of combos that produce the same result, to get the chances from any given result.
Every possible cross for Feanor + Nerdanel, with the gamete %s: (I wish I knew how to insert a table)
Fëanor 9 × Nerdanel 5: 10 (1.6%), 9 (9.4%), 8 (23.4%), 7 (31.3%), 6 (23.4%), 5 (9.4%), 4 (1.6%)
Fëanor 9 × Nerdanel 6: 10 (3.1%), 9 (15.6%), 8 (31.3%), 7 (31.3%), 6 (15.6%), 5 (3.1%) (reproduced/confirmed your result)
Fëanor 10 × Nerdanel 5: 10 (3.1%), 9 (15.6%), 8 (31.3%), 7 (31.3%), 6 (15.6%), 5 (3.1%)
Fëanor 9 × Nerdanel 7: 10 (6.3%), 9 (25%), 8 (37.5%), 7 (25%), 6 (6.3%)
Fëanor 10 × Nerdanel 6: 10 (6.3%), 9 (25%), 8 (37.5%), 7 (25%), 6 (6.3%)
Fëanor 10 × Nerdanel 7: 10 (12.5%), 9 (37.5%), 8 (37.5%), 7 (12.5%)
Nerdanel: +r, +?, 5-7 brown
Fëanor: ?r, +s, 9-10 black
Maedhros: rr, +?, 5-7 or rr, +s (diluted) 6-8 copper or auburn
Maglor: ??, ??, 5-10 dark
Celegorm: ??, ??, 5-7 brown
Caranthir: ??, +?, 6-10 dark
Curufin: ??, +?, 6-10 dark
twins: rr, +s (diluted) 7-8 copper/auburn/dark
I like the chances from 9x6 and 10x5 best. Very low chances of a 10 or 5, but still Celegorm could be 5, Maedhros 6, and Maglor-Caranthir-Curufin 7-9.
Otherwise, 9x7 or 10x6, with Maedhros and Celegorm diluted somehow via carrying silver.
9x5 makes 5 (copper or light/golden brown) more likely and 9 equally so, with 4 and 10 as very unlikely outliers.
RE: Indis x Finwe, I like giving Indis a 3. In think somewhere Fingolfin is called "his father's son, tall, dark, and proud". I wouldn't want him lighter than an 8 or 7. Irime can be a lighter brown (5-7). Also I imagine that, among Elves, 4 is a deep gold instead of the greyish ash-blond Humans get. And I'm going to assume Indis' parents and Elenwe are no darker than 4.
That still leaves Fingolfin's kids wide open because we know nothing about Anaire, except she's Noldorin. I'd prefer her and Turgon and Eol to be dark, but they aren't specified AFAIK. I'm going to cross Fingolfin (7-8) x Anaire (5-10), and then Turgon x Elenwe (0-4), and Aredhel x Eol. (This is so weird. I feel like I'm talking about breeding rabbits. Actually doing so with rabbits named after Elven princes would be... a level of fannish dedication I'm not prepared to go to.)
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