What might be the answer to Gandalf's question which Strider did not answer?

Flammifer

Well-Known Member
Gandalf asks Strider, "But what do you guess is the reason?" (for 'all things being silent for miles around'). Aragorn does not give a guess as to the reason, though he elaborates that he has, 'a sense of watchfulness, and of fear, that I have never had here before'.

What might have caused this sense of watchfulness and fear among the birds and beasts?

Corey explained why he thought it was unlikely to be the Company, the Ring, or the Crebain, which caused the watchful and fearful silence. I agree.

I can think of two possible explanations:

1. The Nazgul (or one or some of them).

2. The sudden attention of Sauron towards the land of Hollin.

Timeline:
January 8: The Company reach the borders of Hollin just at about sunrise. In the morning, after breakfast, Strider notices the silence. Some time before noon (the sun was still rising up from the East) Sam spots the crebain in the distance. At dusk the Company sets out towards the Redhorn gate.

January 9: In the cold chill hour before the first stir of dawn, Frodo feels a shadow pass over the high stars, and shivers. Aragorn says that, 'it was moving fast, and not with the wind'.

The 'shadow passing over the high stars' might have been a Nazgul flying on a Fell Beast (sounds like one?). But this occurs some 20 hours after Strider notices the silence. Could Nazgul have caused the silence? Or, did they only arrive (if arrive one of them did) afterwards?

Hypothesis:
On, or no more than a few days before, the morning of Jan 8, the Nazgul (or one or some of them) arrived back in Mordor (after being un-cloaked at the Ford of Bruinen), and reported to Sauron. Now Sauron started bending his mind and will towards searching for the location of the Ring again. Was it still in Rivendell? Had it left? Where could it be? Was it on the morning of Jan 8 that his thought and attention turned towards Hollin? Did the detection, somehow, of that baleful gaze cause the birds and beasts to fall into a watchful and fearful silence? Was it the will of Sauron which caused the Crebain to arrive over Hollin from Dunland a few hours later to spy out the land? Was it to further check on Hollin that a Nazgul possibly flew over some 20 hours later? Was it Sauron's suspicions about Hollin which caused the Wargs to arrive from over the Mountains and attack the Company 5 days later?

Distances and Logistics:
Northern Dunland (Aragorn says the Crebain are native to Dunland) to Northern Hollin - 80 miles; The headwaters of the River Gladden (Aragorn says, 'the wargs have come west of the Mountains, so let's assume via the Gladden Pass) to Northern Hollin - 100 miles; Barad-Dur (whence a Nazgul might have acquired a Fell Beast and been dispatched) to Northern Hollin - 500 miles. Fords of Bruinen to Barad-Dur 640 miles (via the Gladden Pass) or 840 miles (via down Bruinen to Tharbad and thence Gap of Rohan).

For the Crebain to journey from Northern Dunland to Northern Hollin in say 3 hours they would have needed to fly at 26 mph. Sam observes that they were 'flying at great speed', so it seems possible that they could have been tasked when Sauron turned his attention to Hollin and Hollin went silent, and arrived a few hours later. For a Nazgul to fly from Barad-Dur to Northern Hollin in about 20 hours the Fell Beast would need to fly at about 25 mph. Easily possible. Could include a later dispatch, or rest stops. For Wargs to travel from east of the Mountains to west (via the Gladden Pass) in 4-5 days would require averaging about 25 miles per day. Should be possible. If the Nazgul were uncloaked at the Ford on October 20, and reached Barad-Dur soon before Jan 8, they would have needed to average 14 miles per day (via the Gladden) or 18 miles per day (via the Gap). Both possible.

So, could the silence of the birds and beasts in Hollin on the morning of Jan 8 have been caused by the Nazgul reporting back to Sauron soon before Jan 8, Sauron turning his attention to Hollin (as well as other possible locations), this attention being detected by the birds and beasts, causing silence, watchfulness, and fear? Could Sauron have dispatched Crebain, Nazgul and Wargs to Hollin at the same time? The logistics work.

There are, however, some problems and issues.

The implication is that Sauron could not communicate with the Nazgul at a distance (or he would have learned what was going on in late October, and sent spies to the borders of Rivendell much earlier). Fair enough. I can think of no evidence that Sauron and Nazgul could communicate at distance. But, if Sauron cannot communicate at distance with Nazgul, how could he communicate over distance to dispatch Crebain from Dunland and Wargs from the Vale of Anduin to Hollin?

So, I like the idea that the Nazgul take about 2 and 1/2 months to get back to Barad-Dur after their disaster at the Fords. Sauron then decides to launch spies and search all around and towards Rivendell. He directs his attention to Hollin on the morning of Jan 8. That causes the silence. He dispatches spies. They arrive somewhat later.

But, how does he dispatch spies (Crebain and Wargs) at a distance?

Any other ideas on what causes the silence in Hollin on Jan 8?
 
Do we have any reason to think that the crebain, or the wargs, are directly controlled by Sauron? Seems a bit of a stretch to think that he has that level of detailed control of his slaves, even if they are slaves. More likely he sends word out by some means to 'officers' who manage his lesser slaves. The means of communication with field officers doesn't have to be plain physical transport of written orders. Sauron has had a Palantir in his possession for centuries, and could have learned a few things about crafting similar devices of less general power. So the Nazgul might have returned to Barad-dur a bit earlier than Jan 8th, and it took a day or two for the orders to get issued and the 'servants' to move out.

The only situation I can think of that implies direct control of his troops is at the battle of the Morannon, where they all lose their will to fight when Frodo is revealed to him. But that is the Morannon -- right at his front gates. It would probably be much less difficult to have some sort of 'domination' of troops right at his front gates than all the way across Gondor, Rohan, and Eriador.
 
Good thoughts Forodan.

I think that Sauron needs to give pretty detailed instructions to the Crebain and Wargs to get them to appear in Hollin when they do. Such as, "Crebain, fly north and scout Hollin. You are looking for travellers or travelling parties. Here is how you report back any intelligence." "Wargs, cross the Misty Mountains and head for Hollin. Scout for travellers or travelling parties. Attack if encountered. Here is how you report back."

Now, he does not need to give these orders directly. It could be done through messengers. One thought is that perhaps he sends flying Nazgul out earlier to give the orders to the Crebain and Wargs. Quite possible. However, what then causes the silence in Hollin just a few hours before the Crebain appear? Why would Nazgul fly over Hollin, alarming the local fauna, in advance of the Crebain? This just creates a possible warning to Aragorn ahead of the more numerous (presumably more effective) spies? My conjecture is that it is Sauron's deep focus on and contemplation of Hollin (probably only one of several areas he is cogitating on) which is somehow detected by the birds and beasts of Hollin that causes the silence. Surely his attention would have focused on Hollin before he sent Nazgul to give instructions to Crebain and Wargs? If so, the interval between the onset of the silence which disturbed Aragorn, and the arrival of the Crebain, should have been longer?

Sauron's potential use of Palantir (or Palantir like devices) to communicate also has a variety of problems. If Sauron can use the Palantir to survey the entire world in fine detail at all times, shouldn't he have been using it to track the Nazgul in their race to the Shire and afterwards, be immediately aware of their disaster at the Ford, and be sending spies to Rivendell post haste in October, instead of only sending the Crebain north out of Dunland on January 8? I think it is hard to assume that Sauron has even one-way oversight or communication with his distant Nazgul. It seems more likely that he only gained intelligence once the Nazgul struggled back to Dol-Guldur, and only then launched spies towards Rivendell and the surrounding lands.

I do think it likely that the Nazgul arrived in Dol-Guldur some days before Jan 8. They may have needed time to learn to ride and control flying Fell Beasts, and Sauron may have needed some time to absorb their intelligence and plan his response (not to mention sufficient time to lambaste and punish the Nazgul for their egregious failures in Eriador.

I don't think that the Battle of the Morannon implies direct control, in the sense of being able to give detailed orders, of Sauron over his troops. The influence of Sauron over his army at the Morannon seems to be more indirect. The infusion of Will, Purpose, Determination, rather than specific instructions.

My best speculation on what caused the silence is still that the fauna of Hollin detected the intense focus of Sauron's inimical will upon their land. However, I am not totally satisfied with this theory. Any other ideas?
 
I have not yet heard Corey's analysis of this question. However, I do have some thoughts.

First, and mostly simply it is an element of suspense created by the author to add dramatic interest to the narrative. It might be simply a device by Tolkien as author to create a sense of peril. Or it could be something added by the in-story authors as they reflected in later years on their memories of what happened. Similar things might have happened on other days without the dramatic subsequent events, so no meaning was ascribed on those occasions.

Second, it might be a sort of "calm before the storm" situation where creatures are assumed to have a greater attunement to the conditions that will lead to something dramatic. The creatures sense the "disruption in the Force" and Aragron is sensitive to the creatures.

Third, and mostly likely in my opinion: after Elrond's council, spies were sent out to scout areas where the Nazgul might have gone and to look for them. I think it likely that Sauron used his palantir to watch the Nazgul from time to time, and after the events at the ford, he knew something had gone wrong and would immediately send similar scouts to wait and watch for new developments. LOTRO has a spy master over crebain near the Redhorn pass. LOTRO also has several other any-spy quests during the game-play in Eregion. This seems quite reasonable to me, that Sauron would have sent such minions forth as soon as he perceived the problem with the Nazgul - not only to Hollin, but to all areas surrounding Rivendell, and areas on the path to other places the ring might be taken if it did not stay in Rivendell. The local creatures would sense the presence of these minions, and entry of the company to Hollin would pose the question, "Oh oh, perhaps this is what those minions are here for; i wonder if we'll now see something dramatic." A bit like that fox in "Three is Company" that says to himself, "Hmm, strange to see Hobbits out at night where we wouldn't expect them. I wonder what's up." I imagine creatures of Hollin like that fox, and the question being spread to all of them, except this time they would already have sensed the spies in the area and not just wonder, but pause and wait for something to happen.
 
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Good thoughts TThurston.

What puzzles me though, is the timing. If Sauron was aware pretty quickly that something had gone wrong with the Nazgul near Rivendell (and that the Nazgul were presumably tracking the Ring), then he should have had time to send spies all the way to the outskirts of Rivendell. The scouts that Elrond sent out, however, saw no evidence of such spies.

The first spies of Sauron, or agents of Sauron, that we encounter are the Crebain, Wargs, and possible flying Nazgul, in Hollin. This seems more consistent with Sauron not being aware of the fate of the Nazgul, or the movements of the Ring, until the Nazgul returned to Mordor to report (some time before Jan 8 - possibly not too long before).

It is only on January 8 that we encounter the first (presumed) spies of Sauron (the Crebain) arriving as far north as Hollin, and still 135 miles (as the Crebain flies) south of Rivendell. If Sauron was aware of the Ring reaching Rivendell much earlier, then his spies should have been blanketing the surroundings by around late November at least. It does not seem as though they were.
 
Let's explore this possibility:

Sauron can send his will forth to attempt to sense the Ring. This hasn't been particularly successful, but if it works it'll be worth the effort. This doesn't allow him to see the area that he is projecting his will to, so he needs spies. His war is not something being pursued on a whim, but is something he has been planning for over decades, and so he has the backbone of a spy network in place, including bidirectional messaging to established positions. The messaging mechanism may be supernatural in nature, but is limited to the established network nodes. If he has nodes in Dunland and Dol Guldur he can potentially dispatch the crebain, wargs, and Nazgul concurrently with their different distances to travel helping to explain the timings.
As migrating crows in the primary world have been measured to travel at up to 32 mph this gives a 2.5 hour response time from Dunland, which seems to fit.

So, perhaps the timeline works as such:
Late January 7 or early January 8 the Nazgul are able to report to Sauron through the spy network.
Early January 8 the orders to dispatch the crebain (as fast scouts), the wargs (as fast moving physical assault troops as a backup), and the now flying Nazgul (as Ring retrieval).
The crebain are closest, but will still take a minimum of 5 hours (round trip) to report, and Sauron suffers some impatience because of the lost time after the disaster at the Ford. Sauron extends his will searching vainly for a 'blip' from the Ring, instead causing the wildlife in Eregion to fall into a silent watchful state.
A few hours later the fast scouting crebain appear, but have no means to report anything they have found to the Nazgul.
20 hours later the Nazgul arrives in the theatre of operations, but without intel to narrow the search area flies over, heading toward the most likely pathways from Rivendell to try to find a trail to pick up and follow.
The company attempts to cross the Redhorn pass and are repelled by the mountain.
The intel from the crebain has been passed to an output in the Misty Mountains and gets passed to the wargs as they cross, although there is still no means to pass the intel to the Nazgul beyond sending someone or something to find the Nazgul in the wild.
The wargs find the trail as reported by the crebain and follow the company to the tor and make their attack.
Having repelled the warg attack, the company enters Moria leaving the Nazgul outside and thwarting Sauron's latest attempt to recover the Ring.
Sauron then drops the distraction and returns his focus to the prosecution of war with Gondor.
 
Hi Anthony,

I think your suppositions work with the timing and logistics, and are quite possible.

Your speculation, like mine, is that it is the will of Sauron, focused on Hollin, which causes the silence that Aragorn perceives.

I like that speculation, but I am not totally sure of it. What other things might have caused the silence?

One possibility might be that it was caused by a Nazgul. Perhaps the Nazgul (if so it was) that flew over in the early hours of Jan 9 might not have been the first Nazgul aerial sortie over Hollin? We know that the Nazgul can engender area effects on the psyches of living creatures from Boromir's account, "Wherever he came a madness filled our foes, but fear fell on our boldest, so that horse and man gave way and fled." So, the Nazgul can project fear on both man and beast in an area around them. Watchfulness and fear is what Aragorn felt in the silence.

Could the silence have been caused by a Nazgul over-flight? I think it is possible. When the Nazgul, or one or some of them report back to Sauron (Say in early January) he equips them with Fell Beasts and sends several of them to both scout towards Rivendell via various approaches, and also to organize, instruct and dispatch spies to more comprehensively cover the terrain. In this supposition, the Nazgul gave instructions to get the Crebain organized and moving in Dunland then flew in advance of the Crebain over Hollin, scouting towards Rivendell. In this scenario, it was the passage of the Nazgul northwards over Hollin which was detected by the fauna (but not by the Company? Possible weakness in this scenario.). It was the Nazgul returning, almost a day later, from a quick circuit around Rivendell which was uncertainly detected by the Company before dawn on Jan 9.

What do you think about this Nazgul possibility? Of course, the text seems pretty vague and does not really offer evidence (that I can find) for either case. I think the main strength of the Nazgul supposition is that it eliminates the need for long distance or magical communication by Sauron. All distant communications between Sauron and his resources can be done by physical messengers. The main weakness is that if an overflying Nazgul affected the birds and beasts into silence, why did it not affect the Company?

Can anyone think of any other possible scenarios as to how the silence was caused?
 
Is it not said explicit later in the text that the Nazgul have not crossed the river after being defeated at the Ford ?It is said that Sauron keeps them for the War (according to Grishnackh). "The Nazgul have crossed the river, war is upon us."

Or ?
 
Hi Anthony,

I think your suppositions work with the timing and logistics, and are quite possible.

Your speculation, like mine, is that it is the will of Sauron, focused on Hollin, which causes the silence that Aragorn perceives.

I like that speculation, but I am not totally sure of it. What other things might have caused the silence?

One possibility might be that it was caused by a Nazgul. Perhaps the Nazgul (if so it was) that flew over in the early hours of Jan 9 might not have been the first Nazgul aerial sortie over Hollin? We know that the Nazgul can engender area effects on the psyches of living creatures from Boromir's account, "Wherever he came a madness filled our foes, but fear fell on our boldest, so that horse and man gave way and fled." So, the Nazgul can project fear on both man and beast in an area around them. Watchfulness and fear is what Aragorn felt in the silence.

Could the silence have been caused by a Nazgul over-flight? I think it is possible. When the Nazgul, or one or some of them report back to Sauron (Say in early January) he equips them with Fell Beasts and sends several of them to both scout towards Rivendell via various approaches, and also to organize, instruct and dispatch spies to more comprehensively cover the terrain. In this supposition, the Nazgul gave instructions to get the Crebain organized and moving in Dunland then flew in advance of the Crebain over Hollin, scouting towards Rivendell. In this scenario, it was the passage of the Nazgul northwards over Hollin which was detected by the fauna (but not by the Company? Possible weakness in this scenario.). It was the Nazgul returning, almost a day later, from a quick circuit around Rivendell which was uncertainly detected by the Company before dawn on Jan 9.

What do you think about this Nazgul possibility? Of course, the text seems pretty vague and does not really offer evidence (that I can find) for either case. I think the main strength of the Nazgul supposition is that it eliminates the need for long distance or magical communication by Sauron. All distant communications between Sauron and his resources can be done by physical messengers. The main weakness is that if an overflying Nazgul affected the birds and beasts into silence, why did it not affect the Company?

Can anyone think of any other possible scenarios as to how the silence was caused?
I think you’ve already identified the weaknesses in both of our proposals. Ruling out ‘magical’ communication methods favours a previous overflight by the Nazgûl, but it would need to happen at a very specific distance from the company: close enough to affect the nearby wildlife without being close enough to affect the company.

In support of the possibility of ‘magical’ communication there are the Palantiri, and Amon Hen and Amon Lhaw. These show that such ‘magic’ is possible without showing specific examples of the mechanism behind such a ‘telephone’ or ‘radio’ network.

I don’t see other options that explain the timings.
Is it not said explicit later in the text that the Nazgul have not crossed the river after being defeated at the Ford ?It is said that Sauron keeps them for the War (according to Grishnackh). "The Nazgul have crossed the river, war is upon us."

Or ?
I don’t think we can accept Grishnakh as a reliable all knowing source. As far as he knows they have been held back, but there could easily be exceptions made without his knowledge.
 
Hi Makar,

I don't think it is explicitly said that the Nazgul have not crossed the River after being defeated at the Ford. Grishnakh says of the Nazgul, "He won't let them show themselves across the Great River yet, not too soon. They're for the War - and for other purposes." Grishnakh says this on about February 27. It may well be that NOW Sauron won't let the Nazgul cross the River. In the speculation, however, they would have crossed the River back in early January. Grishnakh's statement neither says nor implies that this ban on crossing the River has been in place since they were defeated at the Ford.
 
Hi Anthony,

I think that if there is a Palantir on each end of a communication link, they can 'face-time' each other. This is pretty clear from Pippin's account of his Palantir linked experience with Sauron. Can communication happen with a Palantir at only one end? I don't think we see this.

Frodo's experience on Amon Hen indicates that Sauron can project his will afar geographically. He (and perhaps Gandalf) seem to also project some sort of motivation or will onto Frodo (much like the motivation and will we see Sauron project onto his army before the Black Gate), but this does not seem to be clear speech or instructions. Frodo seems to be providing the words that express what the conflicting wills of Sauron and Gandalf are influencing him towards.

Sauron's ability to scan an area from a distance and create impressions on the minds therein seems supported. I don't think that Sauron's ability to conduct detailed two-way (or even one-way) communication over distance, other than via two linked Palantir is evidenced?
 
Hi Anthony,

I think that if there is a Palantir on each end of a communication link, they can 'face-time' each other. This is pretty clear from Pippin's account of his Palantir linked experience with Sauron. Can communication happen with a Palantir at only one end? I don't think we see this.

Frodo's experience on Amon Hen indicates that Sauron can project his will afar geographically. He (and perhaps Gandalf) seem to also project some sort of motivation or will onto Frodo (much like the motivation and will we see Sauron project onto his army before the Black Gate), but this does not seem to be clear speech or instructions. Frodo seems to be providing the words that express what the conflicting wills of Sauron and Gandalf are influencing him towards.

Sauron's ability to scan an area from a distance and create impressions on the minds therein seems supported. I don't think that Sauron's ability to conduct detailed two-way (or even one-way) communication over distance, other than via two linked Palantir is evidenced?
I agree with your conclusions on these matters. What I’m suggesting is that the existence of these examples allows one to speculate on the existence of lesser ‘magics’ that allow two way communication of information between Barad Dur and selected outposts.
In the primary world, prior to the Great War battlefield communications were largely restricted to runners (on foot or horseback) or semaphore which obviously limited the speed at which groups out of sight of each other could communicate. The introduction of battlefield telephone systems might have looked like magic to the enemy, with elements of the armies that couldn’t see each other being able to communicate and react almost instantly.
While I’m not suggesting that Sauron has electrical wires running between outposts to allow two way communication, I’m suggesting that he might have some technology or ‘magic’ that provides the same function, but he hasn’t found a way to make it work from arbitrary locations (so, more like telephone than radio). The text gives us so little time seeing inside enemy positions that such a thing could exist without us seeing it.
The major point of dissatisfaction for me in this is that it relies on so much speculation.

In all of this I use ‘magic’ to align with the Elven responses to the Hobbits about magic, and also considering Arthur C. Clarke’s statement that ‘any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic’.
 
Hi Anthony,

I agree with you that it is possible that Sauron has some lesser communication 'magic'. I also agree with you that this relies on quite a lot of speculation that is unsupported by any evidence from the text.

I guess that this thread has changed my mind from my first idea, that it was the detection of Sauron's thought which caused the silence, to my second idea, that an earlier over-flight by Nazgul was the cause. Although this theory also has some problems, I now think it requires fewer suppositions and assumptions.
 
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