The Baggins Uncertainty Principle

This may be venturing too far into areas of the text we haven't reached yet, in which case, feel free to repost it in the General area.

I had never thought about it before but Ijust realized that Sauron may never actually know that the "Baggins" he heard about from Gollum and the "Baggins" the Nazgul chased through Eriador are not the same person. Initially, this seems irrelevant. He knows a Baggins has the ring, so what does it matter if he understands the minutiae of hobbit genealogy or not? In Suaron's case, this may be functionally true. If the same can be said of Saruman, however, then it is highly relevant, as it would indicate that Saruman has no specific knowledge of how or why hobbits are related to his own downfall (remember, he never hears about the Uruk Hai capture of Merry and PIppin cause Eomer doesn't leave any survivors). Thus, the Scarring of the Shire is an even more purely malicious act than one might initially assume it to be. The argument for or against Saruman's knowledge of Bilbo and Frodo's specific identities is much more complicated than it is for Sauron, however. First of all, to get it out of the way, even if Saruman knows I'm confident Sauron doesn't, because I cannot imagine him sitting through a Palantir session where in Professor Curunir outlines the Baggins family tree for him.

Now, on to Saruman's personal knowledge. We know that none of the wise other than Gandalf "went in for hobbit lore" but we also know that, fairly soon after Frodo's departure, if not before, Saruman begins receiving large shipments of Old Toby and Lotho begins his rise to robber baronhood. On the one hand, I can't imagine someone as arrogant as Saruman tolerating much small talk from his minions. On the other hand, given that his middleman is Lotho, and the major shift begins just after Lotho finally achieves his life long dream of acquiring Bag End, which he is able to do specifiically because Frodo just left, it seems highly plausible that he might have said something to Sharky about this.

Where do you fall on this?
 
I've always felt that Saruman taking over the Shire was an act of revenge against Gandalf:
Gandalf took great interest in the Shire, then refused to join him and subsequently escaped from the top of Orthanc.

Saruman takes a particular interest in the Shire around this time, although we don't know for certain which came first.

(Spoilers ;-)

The earliest efforts of his people seem to be purely for the purposes of taking control of the Shire. When Sauron is victorious he will already be able to lay claim to the Shire and have his revenge upon Gandalf by dominating the Hobbits.

When Gandalf later pronounced Saruman's staff broken and set the Ents to guard him, he seems to believe all hope is lost for him regardless of the outcome of the War.
It seems clear that he was heading (slowly) to what he hoped was his remaining power base when the dwindling party catches up with him in Dunland. He believes that the Hobbits have also come to gloat over his losses and I think at this point he sees an opportunity to 'repay' both Gandalf and the Hobbits at one blow. So he decides to not just re-establish himself in the Shire but to allow, or even foster, the destruction that his people had already started.
 
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