Data Update

Discussion in 'Questions for Narnion' started by Evil Dr. Cannon, Feb 9, 2019.

  1. Evil Dr. Cannon

    Evil Dr. Cannon New Member

    I'm going out on a limb here and assuming that we will finish book 1 during the upcoming lecture, #93. With that, I have some fun data and plots for those who are nerdy like me :)

    In the beginning, way back in Jan of 2017, we started out at an irresponsible pace of 15 pages per week, as shown in Figure 1. At this rate, we would have finished Book 6 by the end of 2019 (see Figure 2). However, our current progress has slowed to a much more respectable pace, just over 1 page each week. Therefore, the current forecast is for us to finish sometime in mid-2031 (not accounting for the weeks in which we don't have class).


    upload_2019-2-9_15-16-50.png
    Figure 1: The blue bars correspond to the left axis and indicate the number of weeks spent on each chapter. The red line corresponds to the right axis and show the number of pages that we covered during class each week during Book 1.
    upload_2019-2-9_15-20-15.png
    Figure 2: A plot of the forecasted time remaining based on a 3-week moving average of the progress made each week.​
     
  2. James Lebak

    James Lebak New Member

    I love the data here: well done!

    That late spike in the forecast time plot seems ominous. It doesn’t seem like there’s any reason to think we’ll accelerate in Book 2.
     

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