Data Update

[Evil Dr. Cannon]

I'm going out on a limb here and assuming that we will finish book 1 during the upcoming lecture, #93. With that, I have some fun data and plots for those who are nerdy like me

In the beginning, way back in Jan of 2017, we started out at an irresponsible pace of 7 pages per week, as shown in Figure 1. At this rate, we would have finished Book 6 by the end of 2019 (see Figure 2). However, our current progress has slowed to a much more respectable pace, just over 1 page each week. Therefore, the current forecast is for us to finish sometime in mid-2031 (not accounting for the weeks in which we don't have class).

Figure 1: The blue bars correspond to the left axis and indicate the number of weeks spent on each chapter. The red line corresponds to the right axis and show the number of pages that we covered during class each week during Book 1.​

​

Figure 2: A plot of the forecasted time remaining based on a 3-week moving average of the progress made each week.​

 

[James Lebak]

I love the data here: well done!

That late spike in the forecast time plot seems ominous. It doesn’t seem like there’s any reason to think we’ll accelerate in Book 2.

 

[Anthony Lawther]

Despite Corey's protestations that we'll get through Book 2 Chapter 2 faster than Book 2 Chapter 1, my rough calculations, based on progress by word count, put us on course for 44 to 47 classes for the Council of Elrond.

So, @Evil Dr. Cannon , what do your page count calculations say about out progress so far and prediction of completion of the Council of Elrond?

 

[Evil Dr. Cannon]

@Anthony Lawther
My estimate based on pages is in pretty good agreement with your word-based method. We made it through Many Meetings at a pace of 0.65 pages/class. With 32 pates in the Council of Elrond, we should finish in 49 classes at the same rate.

 

[Anthony Lawther]

Then we'll see if this bears out.

 

[Flammifer]

Hi Evil Dr. Cannon, and Anthony Lawther.

Lovely posts. I am puzzled however, as to why if I go to "The Exploring Lord of the Rings' forum, I see this thread (though attributed to Anthony, rather than Dr. Cannon) as the most recent post on 'Questions for Narnion'. However, when I go to the 'Questions for Narnion' forum, this thread does not appear there.

Why this strange occurance?

 

[Anthony Lawther]

Because in the first case you are being shown the most recent activity: If you checked immediately after posting you would find your name there.
The Questions for Narnion forum is sorted in thread origin order, so to find it you need to go part way down Page 6 to Feb 10, 2019 to find it. It is indeed credited to the correct person in that listing.

Edit: You can change the filters to sort by Last message order rather than First message and then it sits at the top of Page 1 (at present)

 

[Flammifer]

Thanks Anthony, for unconfusing me.

 

[Ardent Crayon]

Is there any comparison of the amount of time spent on each of the poems or songs we’ve covered so far? Is that also increasing with each subsequent instance?

 

[Anthony Lawther]

That is a huge undertaking to determine. By my count there are 31 distinct blocks of verse spread across the 134 sessions so far. I don't think there will be a quick answer to this.

 

[Anthony Lawther]

A more thorough set of data for progress through the Council of Elrond based purely on word count

Session number	Number of words covered	Percentage of chapter complete	Predicted total sessions on word count
125	636	3.9%	26
126	549	7.3%	28
127	691	11.5%	26
128	343	13.6%	29
129	190	14.8%	34
130	483	17.7%	34
131	224	19.1%	37
132	488	22.1%	36
133	197*	23.3%	39
134	0*	23.3%	43
135	192	24.5%	45
136	197	25.7%	47
137	185^	26.8%	48
138	237	28.3%	50
139	241	29.8%	50
140	64	30.1%	53
141	155	31.1%	55
142	336	33.2%	54
143	503	36.2%	52
144	293	38%	53
145	196	39.2%	54
146	191	40.4%	54
147	211	41.7%	55
148	223	43.1%	56
149	132	43.9%	57
150	251	45.4%	57
151	177	46.5%	58
152	279	48.2%	58
153	292†	50.0%	58
154	312	51.9%	58
155	97	52.5%	59
156	231	53.9%	59
157	293	55.7%	59
158	478	58.7%	58
159	202	59.9%	58
160	304	61.8%	58
161	282	63.5%	58
162	175	64.6%	59
163	223	65.9%	59
164	160	66.9%	60
165	165	67.9%	60
166	118	68.6%	61
167	256	70.2%	61
168	180	71.3%	62
169	364	73.5%	61
170	359	75.8%	61
171	201	77.0%	61
172	259	78.6%	61
173	202	79.8%	61
174	346	81.9%	61
175	192	83.1%	61
176	233	84.5%	62
177	127	85.3%	62
178	188	86.5%	62
179	183	87.6%	63
180	168	88.6%	63
181	168	89.7%	64
182	163	90.6%	64
183	188	91.8%	64
184	260	93.4%	64
185	264	95.0%	64
186	170	96.1%	65
187	266	97.7%	64
188	121	98.4%	65
189	103	99.1%	66
190	93	99.6%	67
191	60

*Sessions 133 and 134 (and a little of 135) covered the same slide, in reverse order, so the word count there is complicated.

The general trend is not promising for finishing the Council of Elrond in less than 31 sessions.

Edit: ^ Session 137 covered reading but not discussion of the second instance of Bilbo's All that is Gold poem. The trend continues to suggest more like 60 sessions for the Council of Elrond.

Edit: † Session 153 covered reading but not discussion of Glóin's indignant outburst and Gandalf's response, so I've only included the count of words up to the end of Legolas' speech.

 

[Anthony Lawther]

Table updated

 

[Anthony Lawther]

My chart of progress as at 28.3% through the Council of Elrond:

 

[Flammifer]

Hi Anthony,

What are the axes on your chart of progress?

 

[Katriana]

Chapters on the X and Number of Sessions on the Y is what it looks like to me.

 

[Anthony Lawther]

Chapters on the X and Number of Sessions on the Y is what it looks like to me.

Yes. I thought it was self-evident.

 

[Jim Deutch]

Yes. I thought it was self-evident.

Unlabeled axes are never self-evident. See this, for instance.
Nevertheless, your graphing efforts are still most highly appreciated. We'll keep you.

 

[Anthony Lawther]

Unlabeled axes are never self-evident. See this, for instance.
Nevertheless, your graphing efforts are still most highly appreciated. We'll keep you.

Never is an absolute term, and therefore should be generally avoided. Given the context (and that at least one person interpreted the graph correctly) I stand by my claim that the axes were self-evident.

xkcd is often good value

In future graphs I’ll try to remember to add axis labels for those that need them ;-)

 

[Anthony Lawther]

New graph, complete with axis labels for those that need them, focussing only on Chapter 2 progress.

Grey bars are sessions so far, orange makes up the current prediction.

Edit: and progress for the whole project:

and the trend for the CoE:

 

[Jim Deutch]

progress for the whole project

Looks frighteningly like exponential growth.