Data Update

Anthony Lawther

Active Member
I tried for a less scary estimation, by looking at progress so far versus words remaining.

We have covered approximately 104000 words so far in 140 sessions, although it is generally regarded that we travelled at breakneck speed through the first 9848 (Chapter 1), and barely slowed for the next few chapters.

Nonetheless, assuming (perilously) that this average pace was to be maintained for the remainder of the work, and the trend to not continue, I arrived at the following rounded estimates:
Remainder of Book 2: 100 sessions
Books 3 & 4: 208 sessions
Books 5&6: 182 sessions

The prologue and a recap of Chapter 1 at a 'responsible' rate is probably another 20 sessions, plus another ~10 sessions for summing up and broad conclusions brings us to 520 sessions, or 10 more years at 1 session per week with no interruptions.

More likely, another 12 years as a lower bound.

If the current trend continues then we will never finish, but I'm thinking a logistic function more likely as we can't seriously get to the point where we average more than one session per paragraph.
 

Jim Deutch

Well-Known Member
First it was sessions per chapter.
Then it was pages per session.
Then it was paragraphs per session.
And now we're counting words per session.
We will truly never reach the end. How glorious!
 
I wonder if there’s a correlation between the slowdown of progression and the increase of participants in the live sessions. Not to pooh-pooh the contributions of new members; they bring unique insights and make the discussions more fun. Buuuut... more insight and discussion takes more time. Ah well, it’s all good. We’ll get there eventually. :D
 

Anthony Lawther

Active Member
A positive data point this week, and maybe it's because we've been wading through some particularly dense material until this point:
CoE trend 2020-05-13.png
Prediction of sessions for the chapter has now dropped to 54.
Book2 progress 2020-05-13.pngELotR progress 2020-05-13.png

If we don't spend too much time discussing all of the possible interpretations of trove, beyond the most obvious, we might even make it to the end of Saruman's 'wisdom' as detailed in Gandalf's speech. '"....There let it lie until the End."'. If we make it that far it will be 503 words covered and would bring the course total session prediction for the chapter down to 52.
Covering to Gandalf's '...: a strange chance, if chance it was.' Keeps us on track for 54 sessions.

For those interested, my prediction is based simply on the current session count divided by the proportion covered to date. More rigorous techniques might render a more refined result, but who's got the time for that?

Addit: Our average words per session since the start is around 735, but for the Council of Elrond has been only ~311. So, even were we to step up the pace significantly it will take some time to see a reduction of the prediction for completion of the project which still stands at around 640 sessions without covering the Foreword, Prologues, or re-covering Chapter 1, but is also climbing.
At our current average pace for this chapter we are looking at more than 1170 sessions to complete the work.
 
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