Does Radagast's Message Reveal Saruman's Shrewd Guess?

Gordy N. Knott

New Member
It seems to me very likely that Saruman suspects Gandalf is just foolishly hiding the ring and has not brought it or claimed it. (He can’t be sure though, so he tests Gandalf when they speak). After all, how effective would Radagast’s message to Gandalf have been if Gandalf wielded the ring? Can Saruman think it likely Gandalf would come if with the ring he could defeat the Nine or control them any time he chose? Gandalf’s arrival at Orthanc is strong, though not incontrovertible, evidence that he has not claimed the ring. This can explain why, from the outset, “in [Saruman’s] eyes there seemed to be a white light, as if a cold laughter was in his heart.”
 
You can almost see the calculations, laid out as bare numbers. When he dispatches Radagast, he calculates X% probability that Gandalf has the Ring in his pocket (not yet on his hand I think). When Gandalf shows up at his doorstep the probability goes down, but not to zero. After their discussion, that probability does drop to zero.
 
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